Analysts noted that the application of sanctions regarding the Russian energy sector may have a dual meaning in the future negotiations, indicating the inadmissibility of a zero-risk premium. Such conclusions are included in their notes. After Trump announced on Sunday that he would introduce large-scale measures regarding Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, due to the country's refusal to accept two American military aircraft with deported migrants, an increase in trade violations is expected.
The USA is the largest buyer of Colombian crude oil on maritime transport - in 2024, 183,000 barrels per day or 41% of the total volume, according to the analytical firm Kpler. According to the data from the Agency for Energy Information, the USA imported 228,000 barrels of oil and products from Colombia in 2023.
Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil have fallen to $73.77 per barrel, down 89 cents, or 1.19%. On Friday, Trump reiterated his call for the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries to lower oil prices to mitigate the financial burden on countries rich in Russian oil and to assist in ending the war in Ukraine.
"The ultimate goal of sanctions is to reduce Russia's oil revenues, we assume that Western policies will prioritize maximizing discounts on Russian barrels ahead of reduced supply volumes from Russia," analysts noted in their report. Nevertheless, analysts at JP Morgan believe that a certain risk premium is justified, considering that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet is under sanctions.
With this news, oil prices fell by more than 1% on Monday after President Trump called for OPEC to lower prices in connection with the announced large-scale measures to increase U.S. oil and gas production in his first week in office. Futures for Brent crude fell by 87 cents, or 1.11%, to $77.63 per barrel as of 0043 GMT after an increase of 21 cents on Friday.
"One way to quickly stop this - OPEC needs to stop making so much money and lower the price of oil... The war in Ukraine needs to end immediately," Trump said. Trump also threatened to impose taxes, tariffs, and sanctions against Russia and other participating countries if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not reached in the near future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Friday that he and Trump should meet to discuss the war in Ukraine and energy prices. However, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have not yet reacted to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates indicating that the existing plan is to start increasing oil production from April. Both oil benchmarks have demonstrated the first decline in the past five weeks last week, because of warnings about the absence of supply due to sanctions on Russia declining. Analysts at Goldman Sachs stated that they do not expect a significant reduction in production in Russia, given the high tariffs on transport stimulating an increase in supplies from sanctioned vessels for the transportation of Russian oil, just as deepening discounts on hidden Russian grade ESPO attract buyers' interest for the continuity of purchases.
